8489kjr34
0x038566a76a51ebab67c04628157730ffad15acaf
- Realised P&L
- $4.8k
- Volume
- $44.0k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $495.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar11.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration31.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers · Boston Red Sox | 0.390 | 0.575 | $575.00 | +$185.00 |
| San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres · San Francisco Giants | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.1k |
| Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-08-01? · Yes | 0.485 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.9k |
| Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves · Washington Nationals | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
| Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves · Washington Nationals | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.3k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.3kat 0.285Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians
- +$3.7kat 0.390Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
- +$3.2kat 0.470Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-08-01?
- +$2.3kat 0.615Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 21:36 | Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | BUY | 0.39 | $390.00 |
| 08-02 00:07 | Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians | BUY | 0.16 | $480.00 |
| 08-02 00:05 | Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics | BUY | 0.62 | $1.9k |
| 08-02 00:05 | Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | BUY | 0.38 | $1.1k |
| 08-02 00:05 | Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-08-01? | BUY | 0.47 | $1.4k |
| 08-02 00:05 | Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-08-01? | BUY | 0.49 | $1.5k |
| 08-01 23:18 | Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-08-01? | BUY | 0.47 | $1.4k |
| 08-01 23:18 | Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-08-01? | BUY | 0.48 | $1.4k |
| 08-01 23:17 | Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves | BUY | 0.4 | $1.2k |
| 08-01 21:13 | Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics | BUY | 0.61 | $254.52 |
| 07-31 23:38 | San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres | BUY | 0.43 | $2.1k |