roadstar
0x0387b38bbd5d84670bf8adbbf14129653f1462d1
- Realised P&L
- $183.15
- Volume
- $10.0k
- Markets traded
- 57
- Open portfolio
- $2.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded57
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$146.16at 0.444Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
- +$60.34at 0.143US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$54.80at 0.543SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?
- +$40.00at 0.821SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
- +$26.45at 0.130Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-20 22:04 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.845 | $42.25 |
| 06-23 19:46 | Will UBS fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.966 | $9.66 |
| 06-23 19:45 | Will BMO fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9637318501 | $32.92 |
| 06-17 18:04 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.736 | $36.80 |
| 06-17 18:03 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $22.41 |
| 06-16 22:07 | Will UBS fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9647371311 | $28.11 |
| 06-16 22:07 | Will Wells Fargo fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.965 | $9.65 |
| 06-16 21:55 | Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.963 | $9.63 |
| 06-16 21:55 | Will BMO fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.963 | $8.82 |
| 06-16 00:07 | Will BMO fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.964737899 | $45.64 |
| 06-12 17:24 | Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9673324433 | $28.98 |
| 06-12 17:24 | Will Scotiabank fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.968737717 | $78.67 |
| 06-09 19:11 | Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | BUY | 0.025 | $7.50 |
| 06-05 17:29 | Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | BUY | 0.0737394707 | $3.96 |
| 05-31 02:49 | Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.968 | $4.84 |