0x04B3F873B003eba3774dF1E5e47A370d27Ee1B7E-1774574222951
0x04b3f873b003eba3774df1e5e47a370d27ee1b7e
- Realised P&L
- $4.4k
- Volume
- $250.5k
- Markets traded
- 6,033
- Open portfolio
- $2.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded6,033
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration7.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration3.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$153.40at 0.108Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
- +$147.15at 0.061Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 29?
- +$130.52at 0.133Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28?
- +$130.45at 0.103Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18?
- +$107.44at 0.150Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 03:19 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.6547618724 | $20.00 |
| 08-03 03:15 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $2.77 |
| 08-03 03:15 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $0.69 |
| 08-03 03:05 | Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.095963939 | $13.84 |
| 08-03 02:57 | Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $4.51 |
| 08-03 02:53 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.7919432969 | $15.00 |
| 08-03 02:50 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.2621518598 | $8.53 |
| 08-03 02:20 | Will a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31? | BUY | 0.8699999983 | $10.00 |
| 08-03 02:02 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 3? | BUY | 0.5117530883 | $20.00 |
| 08-03 01:25 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 4? | BUY | 0.6599999954 | $20.00 |
| 08-03 01:01 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.5499999931 | $20.00 |
| 08-03 00:02 | Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.5970361589 | $10.07 |
| 08-03 00:01 | Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.4799999952 | $20.00 |
| 08-03 00:00 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.4 | $20.00 |
| 08-02 23:57 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.3940799674 | $9.66 |