ThirdEstate
0x058cf6af637f1b80cc03705aa6a471f6a6d3b829
- Realised P&L
- $-527.07
- Volume
- $2.9k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $353.80
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-18.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 · Yes | 0.524 | 0.170 | $146.92 | −$306.32 |
| Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.497 | 0.325 | $130.73 | −$69.27 |
| Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.387 | 0.125 | $32.24 | −$67.50 |
| Abstract FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.146 | 0.075 | $25.71 | −$24.29 |
| Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.200 | $10.26 | −$9.74 |
| Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.165 | $7.95 | −$8.91 |
| Paradex FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-35.36at 0.248MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-18 05:36 | Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 | BUY | 0.34 | $63.24 |
| 02-18 05:34 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.16 | $64.64 |
| 02-16 13:32 | Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3499999907 | $16.86 |
| 02-16 13:32 | Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3899999902 | $20.00 |
| 02-16 13:31 | Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 | BUY | 0.3721061555 | $50.00 |
| 02-16 13:31 | Paradex FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.1099999913 | $10.00 |
| 02-16 13:27 | Abstract FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.1458451606 | $50.00 |
| 02-16 13:26 | Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4972066928 | $200.00 |
| 02-16 13:25 | Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 | BUY | 0.3692458127 | $40.00 |
| 01-30 15:20 | Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3867044428 | $99.74 |
| 01-30 15:20 | Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 | BUY | 0.6888486875 | $300.00 |
| 01-30 15:19 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2475247525 | $100.00 |