4moyears
0x09f653fc1f0ee37f9e4a562fefdc31e344eeb528
- Realised P&L
- $-18.4k
- Volume
- $172.1k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $8.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.175 | 0.055 | $8.4k | −$18.5k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$116.76at 0.041Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025?
- +$77.77at 0.130Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
- +$-6.27at 0.110Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
- +$-41.38at 0.290Will the Atlanta Falcons win the NFC South?
- +$-50.47at 0.030Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-09 06:52 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $4.0k |
| 04-09 06:37 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $4.1k |
| 04-05 05:05 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $3.8k |
| 04-05 04:48 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $5.7k |
| 04-03 07:31 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999999 | $1.0k |
| 04-03 07:08 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $8.2k |
| 04-03 04:41 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999995 | $246.46 |
| 10-04 05:19 | Will the Atlanta Falcons win the NFC South? | SELL | 0.23 | $158.62 |
| 09-08 23:58 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | SELL | 0.041 | $3.73 |
| 08-23 01:27 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | BUY | 0.1099999913 | $10.00 |
| 07-31 11:53 | Will the Atlanta Falcons win the NFC South? | BUY | 0.2899999991 | $200.00 |
| 06-05 22:20 | Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? | SELL | 0.0902103663 | $209.46 |
| 03-11 06:07 | Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? | BUY | 0.0413909246 | $99.58 |
| 03-11 00:17 | Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? | SELL | 0.0200665725 | $99.58 |
| 03-09 01:43 | Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? | BUY | 0.0302372766 | $150.05 |