0x0b30d7a048a270c8d7311f2e45344F105c9354f9-1767401919066
0x0b30d7a048a270c8d7311f2e45344f105c9354f9
- Realised P&L
- $1.7k
- Volume
- $254.8k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $3.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.5kat 0.412Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$9.9kat 0.516Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
- +$1.9kat 0.434Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$-44.63at 0.058Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28?
- +$-218.30at 0.170Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 17:12 | Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | BUY | 0.1075082334 | $5.29 |
| 06-28 17:06 | Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.2331730922 | $58.79 |
| 05-11 03:48 | Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.25 | $11.83 |
| 05-11 03:46 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.1306914667 | $392.07 |
| 05-03 21:27 | Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.2497146444 | $262.53 |
| 05-03 18:48 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.12 | $720.00 |
| 05-03 18:44 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.11 | $88.21 |
| 05-03 18:43 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? | BUY | 0.0131478331 | $27.67 |
| 04-05 17:52 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.1699999999 | $1000.00 |
| 03-18 19:58 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.44 | $440.00 |
| 03-18 19:57 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.3 | $300.00 |
| 03-18 19:57 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.44 | $220.00 |
| 03-18 19:56 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.44 | $132.00 |
| 03-12 02:18 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.1699080769 | $44.18 |
| 03-12 02:17 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.0223341564 | $47.13 |