PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

etar

0x0c158a0ffd934322d3a247613dd3fac9e987944d

Realised P&L
$2.5k
Volume
$6.57M
Markets traded
174
Open portfolio
$4.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded174
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration37.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration15.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1540.135$622.22$90.06
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0070.005$605.00$181.83
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0080.006$471.59$90.62
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0090.007$434.99$68.50
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0060.004$276.61$238.99
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.3390.136$200.83$299.17
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? · Yes0.0880.104$177.20+$27.20
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0090.006$169.99$54.11
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0050.003$140.00$162.96
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0030.003$90.00$33.48
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0050.003$73.72$81.62
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0040.004$73.50$4.54
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0040.004$70.00$17.98
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0060.003$70.00$98.00
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0050.004$68.55$10.18

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 21:43US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?BUY0.0880351144$150.00
08-01 13:39Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL0.003$2.49
08-01 13:39Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL0.004$80.00
08-01 13:38Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL0.005$190.23
08-01 13:38Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL0.005$28.43
08-01 13:37Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.003$12.45
07-22 21:16Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.006$0.01
07-19 23:10Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?SELL0.0314647537$41.95
07-19 22:56Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?BUY0.1499999994$200.00
07-18 18:07Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.008$20.08
07-18 11:47Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.003$48.00
07-18 11:43Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.003$36.00
07-16 13:13Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?SELL0.1600810537$197.50
07-16 10:19Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.004$80.00
07-16 09:53Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.005$70.00