etar
0x0c158a0ffd934322d3a247613dd3fac9e987944d
- Realised P&L
- $2.5k
- Volume
- $6.57M
- Markets traded
- 174
- Open portfolio
- $4.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded174
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.4kat 0.409Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.7kat 0.227Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
- +$940.16at 0.045US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
- +$703.90at 0.507Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
- +$667.57at 0.151Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 21:43 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.0880351144 | $150.00 |
| 08-01 13:39 | Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.003 | $2.49 |
| 08-01 13:39 | Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.004 | $80.00 |
| 08-01 13:38 | Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.005 | $190.23 |
| 08-01 13:38 | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.005 | $28.43 |
| 08-01 13:37 | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.003 | $12.45 |
| 07-22 21:16 | Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.01 |
| 07-19 23:10 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | SELL | 0.0314647537 | $41.95 |
| 07-19 22:56 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY | 0.1499999994 | $200.00 |
| 07-18 18:07 | Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.008 | $20.08 |
| 07-18 11:47 | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.003 | $48.00 |
| 07-18 11:43 | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.003 | $36.00 |
| 07-16 13:13 | Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19? | SELL | 0.1600810537 | $197.50 |
| 07-16 10:19 | Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.004 | $80.00 |
| 07-16 09:53 | Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.005 | $70.00 |