0x115A63c208278A576150176880F48F064c94e4A6-1766247046507
0x115a63c208278a576150176880f48f064c94e4a6
- Realised P&L
- $-34.4k
- Volume
- $4.74M
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $31.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.055 | $23.7k | −$40.8k |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.133 | 0.065 | $6.7k | −$7.1k |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · Yes | 0.061 | 0.018 | $688.54 | −$1.6k |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.006 | $65.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.141 | 0.029 | $32.39 | −$122.12 |
| Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.001 | $10.00 | −$70.00 |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.004 | $7.86 | −$48.04 |
| Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.001 | $0.50 | −$1.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.2kat 0.176Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$1.4kat 0.011Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?
- +$1.0kat 0.013Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$936.13at 0.021Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$627.59at 0.147Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-18 21:57 | Will France win on 2026-07-18? | BUY | 0.014 | $56.00 |
| 07-14 20:33 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.0274999997 | $100.00 |
| 06-30 01:56 | Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco? | BUY | 0.0223893964 | $50.00 |
| 06-24 20:51 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.0k |
| 06-24 16:13 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.0789592745 | $894.01 |
| 06-24 16:05 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.076 | $396.90 |
| 06-24 08:30 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.0520147501 | $1000.00 |
| 06-17 02:09 | Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.002 | $99.93 |
| 06-17 02:08 | Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.002 | $100.00 |
| 04-23 09:15 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.166 | $101.59 |
| 04-20 22:15 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.01 | $400.00 |
| 04-19 23:04 | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.011 | $110.00 |
| 04-18 22:25 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.072 | $1.8k |
| 04-18 22:24 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.072 | $720.00 |
| 04-17 22:55 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.012 | $1.2k |