Sibastian
0x117a222ac1dc5c7a846aed790b146d09a62fb3fe
- Realised P&L
- $-455.99
- Volume
- $21.4k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $8.50
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration34.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on August 2? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.009 | $8.50 | −$71.50 |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.28 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$55.42 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$148.21at 0.150Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 31?
- +$137.87at 0.300Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28?
- +$90.60at 0.830Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
- +$19.06at 0.200Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 28?
- +$13.55at 0.610Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-01 17:14 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $2.00 |
| 06-01 17:13 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $3.00 |
| 05-31 05:50 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $586.21 |