lall
0x1212bb8cc91ba3a91f169456f5beb779e7e892d2
- Realised P&L
- $18.90
- Volume
- $24.8k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $214.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)59.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · No | 0.791 | 0.875 | $141.51 | +$13.51 |
| Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0%? · No | 0.500 | 0.958 | $47.90 | +$22.90 |
| Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.003 | $12.50 | −$22.46 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 · No | 0.420 | 0.225 | $7.55 | −$6.54 |
| Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $4.50 | −$1.50 |
| Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.993 | 0.998 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$37.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$63.64at 0.440Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$27.60at 0.770Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
- +$9.00at 0.810Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
- +$8.00at 0.390Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?
- +$7.66at 0.953Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-06 15:30 | Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.993 | $1.00 |
| 03-01 09:06 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.27 |
| 02-20 22:51 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.759999997 | $50.00 |
| 02-18 18:19 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.6199999975 | $50.00 |
| 02-01 22:23 | U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | SELL | 0.71 | $35.50 |
| 01-23 13:25 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.4399999975 | $50.00 |
| 01-23 13:17 | Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | SELL | 0.55 | $27.49 |
| 01-22 11:38 | Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0%? | BUY | 0.33 | $1.65 |
| 01-20 22:04 | Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.002 | $6.00 |
| 01-20 22:03 | Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.002 | $5.85 |
| 01-20 21:31 | Will US annex any territory in 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $13.20 |
| 01-20 21:31 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $81.00 |
| 01-16 20:47 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.5 | $0.19 |
| 01-16 20:47 | Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.02 |
| 01-16 20:46 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $20.25 |