Tonnic
0x150c6974a95da6b8a1dcb3805de25d0cc5251c8d
- Realised P&L
- $165.63
- Volume
- $24.8k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration63.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.297 | 0.304 | $839.44 | +$21.44 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-12 House seat? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.955 | $286.50 | +$10.50 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MD-04 House seat? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.971 | $232.92 | +$12.12 |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.033 | $82.14 | +$2.04 |
| Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.025 | $35.68 | −$18.27 |
| Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · Yes | 0.047 | 0.080 | $28.26 | +$11.53 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.375 | $7.54 | +$0.30 |
| Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.114 | $4.21 | +$2.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.86at 0.819Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?
- +$3.00at 0.120Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$2.00at 0.020Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$0.13at 0.956Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$0.03at 0.860Will Paul Dans be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-17 10:44 | Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.06 |
| 07-14 06:51 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.306 | $2.96 |
| 07-08 17:02 | Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.01 | $4.32 |
| 07-07 14:21 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.24 | $41.36 |
| 07-07 13:11 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.24 | $142.10 |
| 06-26 06:20 | Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.018 | $4.82 |
| 06-10 06:57 | Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat? | SELL | 0.93 | $178.00 |
| 03-08 17:31 | Will the Democratic Party win the CA-12 House seat? | BUY | 0.92 | $276.00 |
| 03-08 16:37 | Will Paul Dans be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | SELL | 0.88 | $1.12 |
| 03-08 12:41 | Will the Democratic Party win the MD-04 House seat? | BUY | 0.92 | $220.80 |
| 03-07 16:44 | Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat? | BUY | 0.94 | $141.00 |
| 03-05 20:40 | Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat? | BUY | 0.93 | $38.50 |
| 02-21 18:18 | Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? | BUY | 0.82 | $82.00 |
| 02-21 18:16 | Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? | BUY | 0.818 | $10.47 |
| 02-06 07:11 | Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.036 | $2.82 |