PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Ferwhere

0x152fdae6b14b9131a61ec77ed61dda50f68da549

Realised P&L
$182.3k
Volume
$17.65M
Markets traded
160
Open portfolio
$20.8k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded160
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration79.3% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration51.7% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.1000.064$10.8k$6.1k
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0240.015$8.4k$4.8k
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · Yes0.0390.019$807.36$858.35
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1100.045$245.45$354.54
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.0410.025$239.13$160.86
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0540.030$168.12$131.87
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0610.036$119.34$80.66
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.0060.004$49.62$40.37
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026? · No0.2600.325$37.50+$7.50
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.0110.012$10.91+$0.91
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026? · Yes0.1850.091$9.90$10.10
Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 AL East title? · Yes0.0740.002$3.05$146.95
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 10, 2026? · No0.2110.000$0.00$407.00
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.2030.000$0.00$400.00
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? · Yes0.2400.000$0.00$100.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-19 21:58Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0692975495$15.00
07-19 21:39Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.4119999999$2.9k
07-19 20:50Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?BUY0.0891091931$500.00
07-17 14:04Exact Score: Any Other Score?BUY0.05$500.00
07-17 14:03Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Argentina?BUY0.0379999996$100.00
07-17 14:03Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?BUY0.0267891293$400.00
07-17 14:02Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY0.0643018868$300.00
07-17 14:01Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.412$5.0k
07-17 14:00Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?BUY0.2699999999$1.5k
07-14 20:38Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0393481203$600.00
07-14 15:44Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.2261064661$8.5k
07-13 16:04Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?BUY0.0358230699$90.00
07-13 16:04Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?BUY0.0347035515$200.00
07-13 16:03England vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceBUY0.5524999999$1.8k
07-13 15:34World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?BUY0.0255436324$100.00