rewrewrewrwe
0x168205abe04b2bbc665fada09297e284edec26ca
- Realised P&L
- $4.0k
- Volume
- $1.17M
- Markets traded
- 282
- Open portfolio
- $2.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded282
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.7kat 0.256MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$6.6kat 0.668US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$2.1kat 0.032Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
- +$2.0kat 0.384Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
- +$1.7kat 0.021Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 20:27 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $199.80 |
| 07-31 20:26 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $199.80 |
| 07-31 18:35 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.1597142857 | $167.70 |
| 07-31 18:11 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $50.00 |
| 07-29 03:39 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.24179298 | $241.79 |
| 07-29 01:36 | Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.008 | $8.00 |
| 07-27 17:25 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | BUY | 0.049 | $25.97 |
| 07-27 16:59 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | BUY | 0.044 | $4.40 |
| 07-25 00:21 | Will Trump say "Drone" during White House Correspondents Dinner? | BUY | 0.33 | $33.00 |
| 07-19 17:11 | Will the announcers say "GOAT" or "Greatest Of All Time" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match? | BUY | 0.5075248679 | $65.31 |
| 07-17 01:40 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | SELL | 0.28 | $259.35 |
| 07-17 01:40 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | SELL | 0.28 | $259.35 |
| 07-16 22:35 | Will Trump say "Maduro" during Speech to the Nation? | BUY | 0.5366666667 | $20.13 |
| 07-16 22:33 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | SELL | 0.4311785863 | $568.23 |
| 07-16 22:15 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY | 0.4159333067 | $155.91 |