ddalkkak
0x16bd7cc71f6da1e77d1d8255677abc75b9bae288
- Realised P&L
- $122.7k
- Volume
- $9.58M
- Markets traded
- 540
- Open portfolio
- $76.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded540
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$59.4kat 0.152Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?
- +$31.7kat 0.239Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?
- +$20.8kat 0.003Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?
- +$15.9kat 0.094Will the government shutdown end November 12?
- +$15.0kat 0.160MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-17 23:42 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $106.16 |
| 04-30 01:25 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $5.5k |
| 04-26 22:41 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.158 | $845.43 |
| 04-26 21:26 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.1299475378 | $421.04 |
| 04-26 21:10 | Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.0357514629 | $11.61 |
| 04-26 20:45 | Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.036 | $82.15 |
| 04-24 22:48 | Spread: Rockets (-8.5) | BUY | 0.41 | $442.87 |
| 04-24 02:05 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.114 | $1.3k |
| 04-24 02:01 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.1129574039 | $508.30 |
| 04-22 23:46 | Spread: Pistons (-8.5) | BUY | 0.52 | $805.93 |
| 04-22 23:46 | Spread: Pistons (-8.5) | BUY | 0.53 | $1.1k |
| 04-22 21:02 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? | BUY | 0.38 | $812.95 |
| 04-22 19:59 | NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $112.50 |
| 04-22 06:53 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.043 | $109.82 |
| 04-22 06:53 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.0798699187 | $89.20 |