il1
0x198a843b90e1a52d573c6021e2bd6c5d1a093ca3
- Realised P&L
- $-5.4k
- Volume
- $1.71M
- Markets traded
- 850
- Open portfolio
- $96.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded850
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.0kat 0.834Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$3.5kat 0.941US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$2.9kat 0.587Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$2.9kat 0.778Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 11?
- +$1.8kat 0.802Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 20:54 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? | BUY | 0.87 | $87.00 |
| 08-02 17:30 | Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $127.75 |
| 08-02 03:07 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.882 | $92.60 |
| 08-02 02:59 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | SELL | 0.13 | $39.00 |
| 08-01 20:36 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $172.00 |
| 08-01 16:29 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.35 | $3.50 |
| 08-01 13:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.39 | $39.00 |
| 08-01 13:04 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.76 | $76.00 |
| 08-01 13:04 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.39 | $39.00 |
| 08-01 12:42 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $18.50 |
| 08-01 11:08 | Trump meets with Putin by December 31? | BUY | 0.73 | $73.00 |
| 08-01 10:34 | Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $68.89 |
| 08-01 09:52 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $92.92 |
| 08-01 09:51 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $93.93 |
| 08-01 09:46 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | BUY | 0.83 | $83.00 |