thelighthouse1337
0x1bbd4be39595b8a2ba03895f38c3f471b4673bed
- Realised P&L
- $-6.8k
- Volume
- $312.3k
- Markets traded
- 9,072
- Open portfolio
- $3.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded9,072
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration16.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration5.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$623.68at 0.080US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?
- +$433.96at 0.370US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
- +$266.40at 0.099US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?
- +$238.17at 0.340US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
- +$168.06at 0.440US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 21:55 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.06 |
| 08-02 21:55 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.11 |
| 08-02 21:55 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.56 |
| 08-02 21:55 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 21:55 | Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.37 |
| 08-02 21:55 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.64 |
| 08-02 21:55 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 2? | SELL | 0.97 | $4.10 |
| 08-02 21:55 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $6.54 |
| 08-02 21:55 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $4.37 |
| 08-02 21:55 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 2? | SELL | 0.997 | $8.31 |
| 08-02 21:55 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on August 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $8.56 |
| 08-02 21:55 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on August 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $10.67 |
| 08-02 21:29 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 2? | SELL | 0.23 | $3.05 |
| 08-02 21:29 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 2? | SELL | 0.3 | $1.50 |
| 08-02 21:29 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on August 2? | SELL | 0.63 | $67.63 |