0x1c14b0dace77ff7A261793Cdc24B01003a30F82b-1761948549683
0x1c14b0dace77ff7a261793cdc24b01003a30f82b
- Realised P&L
- $-12.5k
- Volume
- $1.34M
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $17.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.323 | 0.290 | $17.8k | −$2.0k |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 24? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 28? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 27? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.0k |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 26? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 23? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 25? · Yes | 0.062 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 22? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.8kat 0.621SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?
- +$8.0kat 0.627Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?
- +$3.7kat 0.730LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5)
- +$2.9kat 0.799Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
- +$844.91at 0.061Lighter Airdrop on December 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 21:58 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $2.4k |
| 07-29 17:56 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $145.23 |
| 07-29 09:45 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $920.95 |
| 07-26 03:37 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.0k |
| 07-26 03:36 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.9k |
| 07-26 03:35 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.9k |
| 07-26 03:23 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.9k |
| 07-25 23:57 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $2.9k |
| 07-23 21:59 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $1.9k |
| 07-23 21:59 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.36 | $2.3k |
| 07-23 07:53 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.33 | $1.4k |
| 07-23 07:02 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $420.06 |
| 07-23 06:58 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.36 | $2.4k |
| 07-18 19:46 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $591.95 |
| 06-26 20:11 | Will France win on 2026-06-26? | SELL | 0.957 | $22.37 |