damao888
0x2000a4ecc4df598a1a9ad714bbaa191712fb176a
- Realised P&L
- $-19.78
- Volume
- $357.78
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $71.85
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration25.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.605 | $60.50 | −$22.50 |
| Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.895 | $8.95 | +$0.75 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.125 | $1.25 | −$1.95 |
| Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.115 | $1.15 | −$4.95 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? · No | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
| Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.93at 0.670Will France win on 2026-06-16?
- +$4.08at 0.710Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?
- +$3.52at 0.630Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?
- +$3.20at 0.840Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$2.46at 0.670Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-22 05:44 | Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.6299999958 | $6.00 |
| 06-22 05:36 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.6699999625 | $5.00 |
| 06-16 04:05 | Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |
| 06-16 04:05 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | BUY | 0.7099999815 | $10.00 |
| 06-16 04:04 | Will France win on 2026-06-16? | BUY | 0.6699999839 | $10.00 |
| 05-31 07:10 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $31.25 |
| 05-28 02:05 | Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.61 | $6.10 |
| 05-28 02:03 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $3.20 |
| 05-28 01:53 | Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.82 | $8.20 |
| 03-22 06:45 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.20 |
| 01-26 08:24 | Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $16.80 |
| 01-26 08:24 | US government shutdown Saturday? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 10-30 06:28 | Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? | SELL | 0.9987135778 | $50.39 |
| 10-03 10:09 | Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? | BUY | 0.9909999953 | $50.00 |