mikatrade77
0x23786fdad0073692157c6d7dc81f281843a35fcb
- Realised P&L
- $5.15M
- Volume
- $10.88M
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $0.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar47.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration37.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.93Mat 0.637Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$1.77Mat 0.342Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
- +$800.9kat 0.414Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$611.7kat 0.386Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency?
- +$61.2kat 0.492Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-06 03:27 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.88 | $10.6k |
| 11-06 02:47 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.78367036 | $39.2k |
| 11-06 02:46 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.775 | $18.2k |
| 11-05 22:39 | Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.5 | $14.1k |
| 11-05 22:39 | Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.2k |
| 11-05 22:38 | Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.49 | $4.4k |
| 11-05 22:38 | Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.49 | $2.1k |
| 11-05 22:27 | Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.49 | $244.68 |
| 11-05 22:26 | Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.51 | $9.8k |
| 11-05 22:22 | Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.51 | $2.4k |
| 11-05 22:21 | Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.51 | $1.8k |
| 11-05 22:20 | Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.49 | $480.00 |
| 11-05 15:48 | Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | BUY | 0.273 | $110.67 |
| 11-05 15:48 | Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | BUY | 0.273 | $12.4k |
| 11-05 15:48 | Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.273 | $183.02 |