0x253da8157571bae06d6cf750eeb1b26830a43307
- Realised P&L
- $73.2k
- Volume
- $19.11M
- Markets traded
- 539
- Open portfolio
- $27.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded539
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$173.7kat 0.740Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
- +$111.0kat 0.633No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?
- +$37.9kat 0.791Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
- +$26.0kat 0.870No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?
- +$23.6kat 0.997No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-20 18:34 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY | 0.994 | $9.9k |
| 07-08 22:29 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.1513345 | $302.67 |
| 06-23 21:05 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.092 | $32.24 |
| 06-15 18:39 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.995 | $322.37 |
| 06-11 14:50 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.75 | $600.00 |
| 06-02 19:00 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.992 | $1.5k |
| 06-02 18:59 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.992 | $992.00 |
| 05-27 15:34 | Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.006 | $30.01 |
| 05-27 15:33 | Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.009 | $313.64 |
| 05-26 20:52 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.02 | $100.00 |
| 05-19 21:28 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.02 | $773.59 |
| 05-18 18:31 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.95 | $950.00 |
| 05-18 18:30 | Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.014 | $28.00 |
| 05-18 18:29 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.02 | $100.00 |
| 05-18 18:27 | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.9462650404 | $103.18 |