0x296782ea6065aff94a3cbe7b9ce7f65d0cf3f4c9
- Realised P&L
- $-816.84
- Volume
- $57.5k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $731.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.300 | 0.585 | $228.74 | +$111.44 |
| Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? · Yes | 0.394 | 0.335 | $161.74 | −$28.39 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.860 | 0.960 | $127.21 | +$13.25 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? · Yes | 0.496 | 0.225 | $90.68 | −$109.43 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.220 | $89.76 | +$16.32 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · Yes | 0.295 | 0.125 | $33.12 | −$45.05 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.001 | $0.20 | −$56.91 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$110.16at 0.115Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
- +$102.77at 0.140Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
- +$100.00at 0.500US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
- +$99.15at 0.350Abidjan 2: Calvin Hemery vs Michael Mmoh
- +$94.65at 0.768Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-16 14:07 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.416 | $93.60 |
| 07-07 17:40 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | SELL | 0.0951098845 | $194.01 |
| 05-17 20:00 | Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? | SELL | 0.082 | $38.71 |
| 05-17 18:53 | Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? | SELL | 0.125 | $46.44 |
| 05-17 17:18 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? | SELL | 0.68 | $143.53 |
| 05-17 09:52 | Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? | BUY | 0.138 | $65.14 |
| 05-17 03:16 | Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? | BUY | 0.171 | $63.54 |
| 05-17 00:36 | Sabres vs. Canadiens | SELL | 0.26 | $41.48 |
| 05-16 20:41 | Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 PGA Championship? | BUY | 0.0216770645 | $31.10 |
| 05-16 19:37 | Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? | BUY | 0.0488894082 | $74.27 |
| 05-16 14:50 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? | SELL | 0.47 | $69.74 |
| 05-16 09:42 | Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? | BUY | 0.076 | $75.53 |
| 05-16 06:26 | Sabres vs. Canadiens | BUY | 0.41 | $65.42 |
| 05-15 20:30 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? | BUY | 0.59 | $87.56 |
| 05-15 19:43 | Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? | SELL | 0.42 | $54.15 |