15rob
0x2afd0dfad042ef302aad5d4480602d1a9250deb4
- Realised P&L
- $3.3k
- Volume
- $2.79M
- Markets traded
- 9,654
- Open portfolio
- $2.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded9,654
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration36.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$223.59at 0.303Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
- +$218.69at 0.003Will Cooper Kupp win the Super Bowl LX MVP?
- +$157.06at 0.004Will Donkey Kong Bananza win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
- +$121.06at 0.007Will Death Stranding 2: On The Beach win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
- +$90.15at 0.006Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 09:57 | Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%? | SELL | 0.66 | $4.57 |
| 07-31 06:55 | Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $1.24 |
| 07-31 06:51 | Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $1.38 |
| 07-31 06:47 | Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%? | SELL | 0.72 | $4.46 |
| 07-31 06:47 | Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $1.62 |
| 07-31 03:14 | Will South African inflation be less than 2.6% in 2026? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.00 |
| 07-31 00:10 | Will the Democratic Party win the OH-15 House seat? | SELL | 0.79 | $4.33 |
| 07-30 23:44 | Will the Republican Party win the FL-16 House seat? | SELL | 0.76 | $4.41 |
| 07-30 23:33 | Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.46 |
| 07-30 23:30 | Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.80 |
| 07-30 23:02 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.572 | $4.98 |
| 07-30 22:44 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.50 |
| 07-30 20:17 | Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $1.59 |
| 07-29 22:02 | Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.075 | $0.78 |
| 07-29 21:33 | Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.076 | $0.76 |