PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876

0x2b670a311561dcaf741d8155451774d3fa7fb814

Realised P&L
$24.7k
Volume
$2.91M
Markets traded
218
Open portfolio
$27.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded218
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration46.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration29.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? · Yes0.4790.815$8.0k+$3.3k
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? · No0.2420.392$5.4k+$2.1k
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.5570.635$2.9k+$353.14
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3680.345$2.1k$140.57
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1220.118$1.2k$35.00
AI bubble burst in 2026? · Yes0.2080.189$1.2k$122.08
Fed rate hike in 2026? · No0.3720.325$1.2k$171.17
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0520.095$950.00+$430.00
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? · No0.7000.725$704.08+$24.28
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.2940.215$555.63$203.31
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? · No0.2300.640$514.87+$329.94
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1350.125$500.00$39.99
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.2050.192$383.00$27.00
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.2390.145$304.71$197.46
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.5490.570$304.53+$11.34

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 22:03Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?BUY0.57$122.32
08-02 22:02Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?BUY0.56$2.80
08-02 20:09Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?BUY0.19$175.15
08-02 20:08Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?BUY0.478$47.80
07-29 20:04AI bubble burst in 2026?BUY0.2411502772$893.00
07-29 20:04Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL0.999$10.0k
07-29 19:59AI bubble burst in 2026?BUY0.219958208$79.74
07-29 18:54Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?BUY0.88$176.00
07-29 18:52Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?BUY0.87$91.90
07-29 18:41Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?BUY0.4431994881$138.52
07-29 18:40Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?BUY0.85$113.90
07-29 18:31Will Warsh say "Echo of History" during July Press Conference?BUY0.49$6.42
07-29 18:29Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?BUY0.84$84.85
07-29 18:28Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?BUY0.84$89.28
07-29 18:28Will Warsh’s remarks not air?BUY0.001$9.84