0x308068929Da7c9d04e84d9d5DC65829Ec74afa4a-1763727079446
0x308068929da7c9d04e84d9d5dc65829ec74afa4a
- Realised P&L
- $-6.1k
- Volume
- $871.3k
- Markets traded
- 605
- Open portfolio
- $105.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded605
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 4? · No | 0.130 | 0.175 | $105.00 | +$27.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on August 2? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.002 | $0.54 | −$34.77 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET · Down | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.58 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET · Down | 0.053 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.66 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET · Down | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.07 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 5PM ET · Down | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.38 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 9PM ET · Down | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.42 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.4kat 0.099Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 9?
- +$1.7kat 0.086Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 9?
- +$1.4kat 0.056Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 12?
- +$1.2kat 0.057Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 December 8-14?
- +$1.2kat 0.169Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 8?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 21:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 5PM ET | BUY | 0.46 | $8.38 |
| 08-02 20:49 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on August 2? | BUY | 0.037 | $6.10 |
| 08-02 20:47 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 4? | BUY | 0.13 | $26.00 |
| 08-02 20:47 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 4? | BUY | 0.13 | $52.00 |
| 08-02 14:07 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on August 2? | BUY | 0.15 | $29.21 |
| 08-02 01:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 9PM ET | BUY | 0.23 | $21.42 |
| 08-02 01:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET | BUY | 0.03 | $0.59 |
| 08-02 01:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET | BUY | 0.05 | $0.10 |
| 08-02 01:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET | BUY | 0.08 | $3.04 |
| 08-02 01:04 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on August 1? | SELL | 0.032 | $32.21 |
| 08-01 16:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 12PM ET | SELL | 0.5778058878 | $125.62 |
| 08-01 16:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 12PM ET | BUY | 0.12 | $10.94 |
| 08-01 16:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 12PM ET | BUY | 0.2 | $1.60 |
| 08-01 16:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 12PM ET | BUY | 0.2 | $2.60 |
| 08-01 06:10 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 1? | SELL | 0.0273583546 | $14.35 |