0x3115E2e9272eE9BD4cea3B571e136C5F412561D5-1767887548283
0x3115e2e9272ee9bd4cea3b571e136c5f412561d5
- Realised P&L
- $2.9k
- Volume
- $197.4k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $19.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran Nuke before 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.951 | $7.7k | +$740.76 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? · Yes | 0.857 | 0.925 | $7.6k | +$553.14 |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · No | 0.795 | 0.885 | $3.3k | +$337.83 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? · No | 0.852 | 0.925 | $1.1k | +$86.09 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · No | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.1kat 0.496Will Trump visit China by March 31?
- +$2.4kat 0.778US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$2.1kat 0.859Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
- +$2.0kat 0.710US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
- +$1.9kat 0.890Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-18 15:49 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | SELL | 0.3507919769 | $251.14 |
| 05-18 15:49 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9814693587 | $8.1k |
| 04-19 11:37 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | SELL | 0.7796552474 | $1.0k |
| 04-19 11:36 | Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9216820135 | $1.0k |
| 04-05 03:44 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9630919119 | $7.9k |
| 04-05 03:38 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | BUY | 0.698385018 | $500.00 |
| 04-05 03:37 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8883363217 | $1000.00 |
| 04-05 03:37 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | BUY | 0.7768150581 | $1000.00 |
| 04-05 03:36 | Will Trump and Putin not meet? | BUY | 0.9116969737 | $2.0k |
| 04-05 03:22 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.9648811391 | $12.4k |
| 04-03 00:45 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | BUY | 0.8572908707 | $7.0k |
| 04-03 00:40 | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8778930565 | $5.0k |
| 04-03 00:37 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.89 | $15.0k |
| 04-03 00:36 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.7781246651 | $10.0k |
| 04-03 00:35 | US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | BUY | 0.71 | $5.0k |