dsdsef33
0x33b01b62a28bfdcfb085d58085b5aae34e48c635
- Realised P&L
- $170.05
- Volume
- $39.8k
- Markets traded
- 73
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded73
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.920 | 0.955 | $572.70 | +$20.70 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.465 | $387.66 | −$112.34 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? · Yes | 0.704 | 0.625 | $266.45 | −$33.55 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? · Yes | 0.758 | 0.865 | $112.45 | +$13.85 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.193 | 0.118 | $93.61 | −$59.06 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.365 | $82.94 | −$17.06 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.880 | $51.42 | −$0.58 |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No | 0.840 | 0.875 | $41.82 | +$1.67 |
| Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.960 | $27.36 | +$1.71 |
| Jimmy Lai released by June 30? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$104.24at 0.590Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$102.34at 0.008Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025?
- +$99.99at 0.071Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$98.39at 0.580Will Elon register the America Party before October?
- +$82.06at 0.936Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-02 16:14 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | BUY | 0.8899999855 | $52.00 |
| 06-02 16:14 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.703698148 | $300.00 |
| 06-02 16:13 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | BUY | 0.5997572183 | $500.00 |
| 06-02 16:13 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.440055789 | $100.00 |
| 06-02 16:11 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.937 | $468.50 |
| 06-02 16:10 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $273.24 |
| 06-02 16:10 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | SELL | 0.9858831696 | $220.84 |
| 05-05 06:23 | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | BUY | 0.84 | $40.15 |
| 04-25 03:53 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $33.93 |
| 04-25 03:47 | Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $34.10 |
| 04-25 03:35 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $84.39 |
| 04-25 03:30 | Jimmy Lai released by June 30? | BUY | 0.031 | $3.10 |
| 04-25 03:26 | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | BUY | 0.76 | $83.60 |
| 04-25 03:26 | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | BUY | 0.75 | $15.00 |
| 04-04 06:13 | Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $25.58 |