mw97
0x36da5ca5d1d4b79f1c2ebbb09be8c13834568218
- Realised P&L
- $153.86
- Volume
- $1.73M
- Markets traded
- 666
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded666
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? · Yes | 0.496 | 0.365 | $1.4k | −$490.14 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.065 | $162.50 | −$87.50 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.040 | $118.48 | −$117.57 |
| Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.020 | $1.87 | +$1.59 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.26 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on July 30? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.20 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July? · No | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.8kat 0.058Will Trump visit China by April 30?
- +$1.6kat 0.333Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?
- +$1.0kat 0.319Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?
- +$934.49at 0.035Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February?
- +$757.61at 0.354US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 07:58 | Will Workhorse announce bankruptcy before 2027? | SELL | 0.6 | $8.29 |
| 07-29 12:28 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | SELL | 0.107 | $26.75 |
| 07-24 23:01 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.095 | $152.00 |
| 07-24 21:11 | Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $273.00 |
| 07-23 21:14 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | SELL | 0.7391274 | $36.96 |
| 07-23 16:09 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July? | SELL | 0.154 | $16.55 |
| 07-21 22:15 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July? | SELL | 0.075 | $1.13 |
| 07-21 12:42 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | BUY | 0.194 | $11.64 |
| 07-21 12:39 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July? | BUY | 0.0942089 | $18.84 |
| 07-21 12:36 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $40.00 |
| 07-20 16:18 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | BUY | 0.20182 | $40.36 |
| 07-20 16:14 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $80.00 |
| 07-20 16:05 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | BUY | 0.2 | $19.79 |
| 07-18 19:04 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July? | BUY | 0.07 | $29.40 |
| 07-18 19:03 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July? | BUY | 0.067 | $5.07 |