0x49ca
0x372e3d8cfb3ff344b7ed93fe01473c18d6be64c1
- Realised P&L
- $-517.93
- Volume
- $23.7k
- Markets traded
- 106
- Open portfolio
- $20.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded106
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.221 | 0.207 | $10.38 | −$0.68 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.075 | $7.50 | −$24.50 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.001 | $3.01 | −$226.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$83.50at 0.277Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$67.89at 0.047Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
- +$36.51at 0.050Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?
- +$28.00at 0.720Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?
- +$23.26at 0.011Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-05 01:10 | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | SELL | 0.87 | $22.32 |
| 02-26 10:19 | Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? | BUY | 0.75 | $10.00 |
| 01-28 07:46 | US government shutdown Saturday? | BUY | 0.24 | $15.00 |
| 01-08 07:16 | Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? | BUY | 0.08 | $8.00 |
| 01-07 13:26 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.51 | $16.36 |
| 01-07 08:14 | Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? | BUY | 0.65 | $3.25 |
| 01-07 07:14 | Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.50 |
| 01-07 07:11 | Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? | BUY | 0.07 | $1.19 |
| 01-05 06:34 | Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? | BUY | 0.39 | $7.80 |
| 12-30 07:17 | Lighter Airdrop on December 29? | SELL | 0.999 | $9.24 |
| 12-26 13:16 | Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $2.50 |
| 11-07 12:52 | Will Bitcoin dip to $95k November 3-9? | BUY | 0.218999968 | $5.00 |
| 11-07 12:51 | Will Bitcoin dip to $97k November 3-9? | BUY | 0.4699999887 | $5.00 |
| 11-07 12:41 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? | SELL | 0.932 | $11.09 |
| 11-07 12:40 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5299999969 | $17.00 |