0x3B77482D17f6953e8dAa1d7E69b111FfA72627cd-1771634623985
0x3b77482d17f6953e8daa1d7e69b111ffa72627cd
- Realised P&L
- $2.0k
- Volume
- $53.0k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $227.73
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? · Yes | 0.068 | 0.015 | $212.14 | −$751.35 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.105 | $10.10 | −$14.90 |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.055 | $5.50 | −$4.50 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? · No | 0.559 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? · Yes | 0.062 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? · No | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$124.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.7kat 0.183US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$481.57at 0.342US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
- +$293.48at 0.460US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?
- +$289.23at 0.592US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$210.00at 0.300US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 00:25 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.0396330022 | $295.58 |
| 06-07 19:56 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $90.00 |
| 06-07 19:55 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.0909326507 | $100.00 |
| 05-28 23:42 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.1 | $20.00 |
| 04-12 01:53 | Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | BUY | 0.0622130423 | $50.00 |
| 04-11 13:12 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.1 | $100.00 |
| 04-11 13:10 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.1 | $50.00 |
| 04-11 12:10 | US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.1113775418 | $100.00 |
| 04-11 10:48 | US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.0824178547 | $50.00 |
| 04-10 03:08 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.001 | $10.00 |
| 04-09 02:03 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.5589999919 | $25.00 |
| 04-09 01:55 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.0904029168 | $100.00 |
| 04-09 01:54 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.003 | $15.00 |
| 04-07 23:01 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.011 | $10.00 |
| 04-07 22:55 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.1069465259 | $100.00 |