bcobb
0x3cef578e24de95eac7f706876c17a05a06d7c64d
- Realised P&L
- $-3.31
- Volume
- $27.9k
- Markets traded
- 76
- Open portfolio
- $8.35
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded76
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration75.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.029 | $8.14 | +$5.11 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 27-August 2? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.001 | $0.21 | −$0.62 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.80 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.89 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.67at 0.961Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.58at 0.994Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$0.10at 0.945Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.10at 0.992Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$0.10at 0.999Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 17:19 | Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.83 |
| 08-02 17:18 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.029 | $2.15 |
| 08-02 17:18 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.994 | $90.45 |
| 07-28 04:46 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.994 | $90.45 |
| 07-10 07:35 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.011 | $3.85 |
| 07-10 07:35 | Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.992 | $95.23 |
| 07-05 04:53 | Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.993 | $95.33 |
| 06-20 10:39 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.961 | $90.33 |
| 06-11 05:25 | Israel closes its airspace by June 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $93.91 |
| 06-06 08:46 | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.946 | $94.60 |
| 06-02 03:01 | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.945 | $94.50 |
| 03-10 08:38 | Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.992 | $90.27 |
| 03-06 06:29 | Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.992 | $90.27 |
| 03-02 13:13 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.89 |
| 03-02 13:13 | Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? | SELL | 0.998 | $93.81 |