0x3fd0190eb137e335db080b9855f90c86849f0022
- Realised P&L
- $-25.6k
- Volume
- $2.13M
- Markets traded
- 182
- Open portfolio
- $55.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded182
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? · No | 0.910 | 0.895 | $15.7k | −$262.78 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? · No | 0.900 | 0.975 | $8.7k | +$670.39 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.885 | $8.0k | +$45.45 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? · No | 0.988 | 0.970 | $5.6k | −$106.31 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · Yes | 0.962 | 0.982 | $5.5k | +$112.08 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? · No | 0.982 | 0.988 | $5.2k | +$31.31 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · No | 0.990 | 1.000 | $4.8k | +$45.96 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.205 | $950.38 | +$23.18 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.290 | $366.75 | +$101.17 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.384 | 0.464 | $169.29 | +$29.04 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.267 | 0.192 | $101.84 | −$40.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.2kat 0.884Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
- +$2.1kat 0.760Grand Prix Hassan II: Rafael Jodar vs Tomas Machac
- +$1.9kat 0.201Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?
- +$1.3kat 0.940US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
- +$1.2kat 0.880Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 10:00 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.9k |
| 08-01 06:00 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? | BUY | 0.9 | $903.99 |
| 07-26 00:00 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $324.00 |
| 07-25 20:00 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | SELL | 0.6993728595 | $6.1k |
| 07-25 10:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July? | BUY | 0.951 | $902.50 |
| 07-21 16:00 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $303.51 |
| 07-18 08:00 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July? | BUY | 0.964 | $32.10 |
| 07-17 02:00 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.99 | $34.68 |
| 07-13 16:00 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17? | SELL | 0.5786859767 | $5.0k |
| 07-08 06:00 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17? | BUY | 0.952 | $230.92 |
| 07-03 10:00 | Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | BUY | 0.92 | $7.3k |
| 07-02 10:00 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY | 0.9 | $8.0k |
| 07-02 06:00 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? | BUY | 0.99 | $6.3k |
| 06-19 04:00 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.974 | $0.97 |
| 06-18 02:00 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? | SELL | 0.622804721 | $11.61 |