25thh
0x404c2b73fd4edab6bb2c6b1e32a284a13ea0fb94
- Realised P&L
- $-23.60
- Volume
- $197.88
- Markets traded
- 5
- Open portfolio
- $5.58
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded5
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.238 | $4.77 | −$5.23 |
| Will Democratic House incumbents not win in fewer than three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.080 | $0.80 | −$4.21 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.93at 0.540Honus Wagner card sale >$7 million?
- +$-4.64at 0.440Will HP (HPQ) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$-10.67at 0.450Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-21 14:41 | Honus Wagner card sale >$7 million? | SELL | 0.636665 | $12.73 |
| 02-17 08:43 | Will HP (HPQ) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.27 | $7.36 |
| 02-16 22:10 | Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.33 |
| 02-15 23:23 | Will Democratic House incumbents not win in fewer than three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? | SELL | 0.43 | $4.30 |