Saffroncrypto
0x40592c5edac6476672049d5e593fcb59084d3371
- Realised P&L
- $-20.5k
- Volume
- $1.80M
- Markets traded
- 220
- Open portfolio
- $3.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded220
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.375 | $1.5k | +$838.50 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.415 | $1.2k | +$585.68 |
| Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.744 | 0.890 | $358.90 | +$58.90 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.0kat 0.628Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
- +$752.70at 0.930Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$727.99at 0.440Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 153.5
- +$476.17at 0.705Seeker FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- +$463.41at 0.693Over $30M committed to the Gensyn public sale?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 16:55 | Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7439300269 | $300.00 |
| 06-22 02:55 | Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.24 | $345.43 |
| 05-20 22:31 | Spread: Thunder (-7.5) | SELL | 0.5 | $600.00 |
| 05-20 22:31 | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 | SELL | 0.46 | $919.99 |
| 05-11 20:00 | Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.4799619554 | $2.3k |
| 04-23 22:01 | Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5 | SELL | 0.49 | $980.00 |
| 04-23 21:59 | Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 214.5 | SELL | 0.49 | $858.67 |
| 04-22 02:10 | Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5 | SELL | 0.46 | $598.00 |
| 04-22 01:46 | Spread: Rockets (-5.5) | SELL | 0.47 | $1.0k |
| 04-19 22:25 | Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 221.5 | SELL | 0.47 | $704.99 |
| 04-19 19:39 | Valorant: Dortmund eSports vs ALTERNATE aTTaX (BO3) - VCL DACH: Evolution Group Stage | SELL | 0.2116029923 | $39.60 |
| 04-19 19:39 | Valorant: Dortmund eSports vs ALTERNATE aTTaX (BO3) - VCL DACH: Evolution Group Stage | BUY | 0.2459503766 | $26.50 |
| 04-07 18:10 | Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? | SELL | 0.21 | $420.00 |
| 03-27 16:22 | Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 151.5 | SELL | 0.53 | $31.81 |
| 03-27 16:22 | Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 151.5 | SELL | 0.46 | $690.00 |