0x413531f78b28c2f2014dd82e92f46802769ce462
- Realised P&L
- $-2.0k
- Volume
- $332.3k
- Markets traded
- 120
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded120
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? · Yes | 0.444 | 0.205 | $1.2k | −$1.4k |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? · Yes | 0.434 | 0.140 | $450.70 | −$946.90 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes | 0.334 | 0.205 | $128.17 | −$80.79 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.488 | 0.230 | $9.43 | −$10.57 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.205 | $5.18 | −$1.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.4kat 0.442Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.080Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$970.53at 0.076Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$910.00at 0.090US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
- +$865.34at 0.318Iran closes its airspace by July 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 05:47 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | SELL | 0.2118602 | $847.44 |
| 07-27 06:59 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | BUY | 0.2799999979 | $85.69 |
| 07-27 06:59 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | SELL | 0.06 | $86.55 |
| 07-26 19:58 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | BUY | 0.2199999851 | $10.31 |
| 07-26 19:56 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | SELL | 0.05 | $10.42 |
| 07-26 19:56 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | BUY | 0.2545488044 | $128.54 |
| 07-26 06:44 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | SELL | 0.09 | $129.82 |
| 07-23 21:57 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY | 0.4098699772 | $315.23 |
| 07-23 21:56 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | BUY | 0.5951403383 | $318.41 |
| 07-22 16:59 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY | 0.3646858426 | $274.57 |
| 07-21 18:59 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | BUY | 0.404457979 | $277.32 |
| 07-21 18:59 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | BUY | 0.4489039217 | $1.7k |
| 07-21 10:17 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | SELL | 0.4418875137 | $2.3k |
| 07-20 20:43 | Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.942604 | $9.43 |
| 07-20 20:36 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | BUY | 0.4964549161 | $783.68 |