M888
0x43440ab002eaac9fede6f9d21bea96d84228f90d
- Realised P&L
- $236.6k
- Volume
- $11.14M
- Markets traded
- 1,552
- Open portfolio
- $214.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,552
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration20.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$44.3kat 0.066Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$9.6kat 0.129Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
- +$9.5kat 0.006Will Trump shake hands with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the World Economic Forum?
- +$5.3kat 0.063US strike on Syria by December 19?
- +$5.2kat 0.428Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 04:04 | Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by October 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $400.44 |
| 07-31 10:04 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $272.97 |
| 07-27 15:52 | Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31? | BUY | 0.9387769019 | $538.28 |
| 07-21 20:14 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $244.42 |
| 07-20 22:11 | Will John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026? | BUY | 0.9987891819 | $2.5k |
| 07-20 22:11 | Will Yvette Cooper be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.7k |
| 07-20 18:24 | Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | BUY | 0.1468577474 | $178.38 |
| 07-20 17:44 | Will Keir Starmer be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.2k |
| 07-20 17:43 | Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.77 |
| 07-20 17:43 | Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.2k |
| 07-20 17:38 | Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.13 |
| 07-20 17:21 | Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $944.27 |
| 07-20 17:20 | Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.6k |
| 07-20 17:19 | Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.5k |
| 07-20 17:18 | Will Yvette Cooper be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? | BUY | 0.8840771756 | $597.74 |