xiaohuli12
0x436db6c0d7be0c21fc3b90a2503ad37bde1f6c1d
- Realised P&L
- $-7.0k
- Volume
- $152.0k
- Markets traded
- 63
- Open portfolio
- $4.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded63
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · No | 0.833 | 0.875 | $2.1k | +$101.92 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.345 | $1.2k | −$373.69 |
| Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.945 | $1.1k | +$40.80 |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.658 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$800.00 |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1000.00 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.585 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$450.00 |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.97 |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? · Yes | 0.816 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.9k |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$800.00 |
| Iran closes its airspace by July 31? · No | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.696Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
- +$1.1kat 0.652Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?
- +$600.00at 0.500Will United States win on 2026-06-12?
- +$579.31at 0.580Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?
- +$520.61at 0.793US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 05:55 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999999 | $1.6k |
| 06-27 12:12 | Will England win on 2026-06-27? | BUY | 0.8499999999 | $590.00 |
| 06-27 12:11 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? | BUY | 0.86 | $800.00 |
| 06-26 07:04 | Will France win on 2026-06-26? | BUY | 0.6099999993 | $800.00 |
| 06-25 04:28 | Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? | BUY | 0.89 | $796.69 |
| 06-25 04:28 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | BUY | 0.6579999998 | $800.00 |
| 06-24 09:50 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.8299999999 | $355.03 |
| 06-24 09:50 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.75 | $800.00 |
| 06-23 13:05 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.7199999979 | $81.32 |
| 06-23 08:43 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | BUY | 0.5199999998 | $1000.00 |
| 06-23 08:42 | Will England win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.8299999999 | $1000.00 |
| 06-23 08:42 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.8599999999 | $1000.00 |
| 06-22 12:34 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.6799999989 | $24.87 |
| 06-22 05:12 | Will England win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.8 | $900.00 |
| 06-22 05:12 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.6699999999 | $800.00 |