0x4aa87D513621C74A091f514E9c14B52377F46531-1779355201172
0x4aa87d513621c74a091f514e9c14b52377f46531
- Realised P&L
- $-23.4k
- Volume
- $533.8k
- Markets traded
- 95
- Open portfolio
- $1.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded95
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.207 | 1.000 | $999.51 | +$792.26 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.259 | 0.001 | $0.50 | −$258.16 |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? · No | 0.261 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$671.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.954US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$419.90at 0.971Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
- +$398.87at 0.996Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
- +$214.72at 0.801Will no MrBeast video be posted?
- +$199.94at 0.978Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 06:19 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25866 | $258.66 |
| 08-01 05:03 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2493934983 | $41.12 |
| 08-01 04:27 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $53.95 |
| 08-01 04:20 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $154.84 |
| 08-01 04:07 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $5.02 |
| 07-30 21:58 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.769 | $384.50 |
| 07-30 21:57 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $76.00 |
| 07-30 21:07 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7019551324 | $536.00 |
| 07-30 21:01 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6984143142 | $59.62 |
| 07-30 21:00 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6935858848 | $576.97 |
| 07-30 20:46 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.698371245 | $1.4k |
| 07-30 20:44 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.676 | $10.15 |
| 07-30 20:44 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.665826125 | $304.05 |
| 07-29 01:30 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.9988170339 | $201.71 |
| 07-29 01:15 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $99.00 |