bitcoinmafia
0x4d3e6f882536f5bde89d20a64e2198b1c1e8783b
- Realised P&L
- $13.4k
- Volume
- $2.82M
- Markets traded
- 1,215
- Open portfolio
- $43.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,215
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration26.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.7kat 0.578Will Australia win?
- +$17.0kat 0.239Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
- +$15.8kat 0.422Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?
- +$11.2kat 0.492Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
- +$10.1kat 0.442Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 09:35 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $3.9k |
| 07-30 09:27 | Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $657.14 |
| 07-18 19:52 | Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4978492936 | $76.11 |
| 07-09 08:39 | Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 | BUY | 0.965 | $2.3k |
| 07-08 07:47 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at <$350 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 6 – Jul 10? | BUY | 0.19 | $285.00 |
| 06-23 09:56 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.96 | $187.18 |
| 06-23 07:54 | Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3795481145 | $5.0k |
| 06-23 07:51 | Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499099845 | $194.36 |
| 06-23 07:51 | Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4698996832 | $142.40 |
| 06-21 09:02 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $661.88 |
| 06-19 07:25 | Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $430.83 |
| 06-18 19:02 | Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3350959862 | $855.49 |
| 06-18 19:01 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.59 | $1.2k |
| 06-18 19:01 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5697702998 | $248.05 |
| 06-17 21:51 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $80.59 |