matureman
0x4d5adbe5be55ca235231134c3455d184be8a02ea
- Realised P&L
- $-332.92
- Volume
- $18.6k
- Markets traded
- 143
- Open portfolio
- $91.34
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded143
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.83at 0.246Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
- +$36.09at 0.275Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
- +$27.86at 0.248Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?
- +$25.56at 0.790US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
- +$23.44at 0.489Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 03:14 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $4.84 |
| 08-03 01:02 | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | BUY | 0.4699999572 | $5.49 |
| 08-02 22:17 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.3158403231 | $10.17 |
| 08-02 22:05 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? | BUY | 0.2899999564 | $2.86 |
| 08-02 21:56 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | SELL | 0.32 | $7.70 |
| 08-02 21:48 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | BUY | 0.7299999744 | $6.00 |
| 08-02 21:03 | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? | SELL | 0.9 | $6.13 |
| 08-02 19:07 | Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? | SELL | 0.77 | $7.50 |
| 08-02 18:50 | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.88 | $6.00 |
| 08-02 15:11 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.3630448494 | $10.33 |
| 08-02 14:54 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999441 | $2.99 |
| 08-02 12:13 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.3769999719 | $7.10 |
| 08-02 11:39 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | SELL | 0.27 | $4.52 |
| 08-02 09:51 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | SELL | 0.11 | $0.89 |
| 08-02 07:29 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.5499999841 | $8.67 |