0x4Db156B8686ee1FFF64471c9e83f87673712e2Ab-1771421075829
0x4db156b8686ee1fff64471c9e83f87673712e2ab
- Realised P&L
- $2.5k
- Volume
- $67.2k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $4.5k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)93.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.536 | 0.545 | $3.3k | +$53.95 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? · Yes | 0.674 | 0.565 | $616.36 | −$118.87 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.195 | $591.68 | −$14.50 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.135 | $71.55 | −$29.15 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.70 |
| SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? · Down | 0.076 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$745.27 |
| SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? · Down | 0.406 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$558.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$930.76at 0.855Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$920.30at 0.710Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$316.65at 0.670Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$306.95at 0.836Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February?
- +$286.04at 0.260US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 09:44 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $1.89 |
| 07-31 09:40 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $111.30 |
| 07-31 09:40 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $377.85 |
| 07-31 09:36 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $115.14 |
| 07-31 09:32 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $6.00 |
| 07-31 09:31 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | SELL | 0.87 | $88.73 |
| 07-31 09:29 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | SELL | 0.88 | $262.25 |
| 07-29 20:46 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | BUY | 0.68 | $88.40 |
| 07-29 20:45 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | BUY | 0.67 | $20.10 |
| 07-29 16:08 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | BUY | 0.7 | $157.50 |
| 07-29 16:08 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | BUY | 0.68 | $20.40 |
| 07-29 16:08 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | BUY | 0.67 | $251.24 |
| 07-29 16:07 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | BUY | 0.6536672239 | $191.60 |
| 06-23 09:24 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $8.12 |
| 06-23 09:23 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $701.80 |