0x516171014e6bc0cf5ce9b16e9afd79c7624b3c38
- Realised P&L
- $-40.82
- Volume
- $43.4k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $3.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)14.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.142 | 0.304 | $2.5k | +$1.3k |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.034 | $336.95 | −$85.18 |
| Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.205 | $54.80 | +$4.01 |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.085 | 0.096 | $30.24 | +$3.24 |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.037 | $19.27 | −$5.73 |
| Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.025 | $2.21 | −$0.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$356.99at 0.084Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$314.78at 0.426Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?
- +$141.89at 0.405France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
- +$136.79at 0.179Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$57.91at 0.160Trail Blazers vs. Spurs
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 18:43 | Will Remco Evenepoel win the 2026 Tour De France? | BUY | 0.033999992 | $4.00 |
| 07-21 17:59 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.3079999984 | $78.37 |
| 07-21 01:23 | Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.1899999973 | $50.79 |
| 07-21 01:21 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.0820861022 | $12.00 |
| 07-20 21:28 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.0479999982 | $25.00 |
| 07-20 21:28 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.0879999949 | $15.00 |
| 07-15 21:50 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.3069305011 | $218.97 |
| 07-15 21:49 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.58 | $197.93 |
| 07-14 23:07 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0377483982 | $115.83 |
| 07-14 22:49 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0353659601 | $80.65 |
| 07-14 00:08 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4049999989 | $96.58 |
| 07-12 12:18 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.200999995 | $31.14 |
| 07-11 10:31 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0459524436 | $34.06 |
| 07-08 19:43 | Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Morocco? | BUY | 0.012 | $3.00 |
| 07-08 19:43 | Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Morocco? | BUY | 0.0110000001 | $3.00 |