NoClueAtAll
0x557e7b25f023c972ad509024ed189b61d19c3c74
- Realised P&L
- $2.1k
- Volume
- $2.31M
- Markets traded
- 198
- Open portfolio
- $6.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded198
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.984 | 1.000 | $5.2k | +$83.29 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.388 | 0.192 | $1.4k | −$1.5k |
| Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.005 | $110.00 | −$70.00 |
| Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? · No | 0.997 | 1.000 | $11.00 | +$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.880Kinetiq FDV above $150M one day after launch?
- +$1.1kat 0.930Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- +$801.80at 0.943Will the government shutdown end November 13?
- +$674.13at 0.939Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-01-10?
- +$575.12at 0.993Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-04 18:06 | Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9839403387 | $5.1k |
| 06-20 12:42 | Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.8740468571 | $917.75 |
| 06-20 12:39 | Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.892755 | $892.75 |
| 06-20 12:35 | Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.95 | $1.0k |
| 06-08 17:28 | Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.88 | $1.2k |
| 06-08 17:17 | Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.78 | $819.00 |
| 06-08 17:17 | Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.81 | $810.00 |
| 06-08 17:16 | Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.88 | $440.00 |
| 06-08 17:14 | Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.85 | $935.00 |
| 06-08 16:02 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | SELL | 0.8843123964 | $4.2k |
| 04-24 14:28 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on April 26? | BUY | 0.9540652174 | $26.21 |
| 04-24 14:26 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | BUY | 0.7645965077 | $3.6k |
| 03-13 20:11 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.86 | $311.14 |
| 03-13 20:10 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.957 | $1.5k |
| 03-13 20:09 | Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.009 | $180.00 |