SirHarryOakes
0x5685bf6758facce7d1221d3cc3ab0fdb836a62e2
- Realised P&L
- $49.5k
- Volume
- $1.48M
- Markets traded
- 282
- Open portfolio
- $87.3k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded282
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.3kat 0.778Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?
- +$3.3kat 0.764Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$3.2kat 0.740Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$3.1kat 0.845Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
- +$2.5kat 0.900Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 16:54 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.9549999999 | $539.00 |
| 08-01 16:40 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.9565824847 | $1000.00 |
| 08-01 16:26 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999984 | $99.00 |
| 08-01 16:17 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.33999983 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 16:08 | Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997608 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 16:07 | Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? | BUY | 0.9772602629 | $200.00 |
| 08-01 16:05 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8000941935 | $500.00 |
| 08-01 16:04 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.9501533404 | $1000.00 |
| 08-01 01:17 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.9469999996 | $21.50 |
| 08-01 01:09 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.9469999991 | $50.00 |
| 08-01 00:25 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.9479999989 | $20.00 |
| 08-01 00:24 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.9479999996 | $50.00 |
| 08-01 00:22 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.9469999998 | $30.00 |
| 08-01 00:21 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.9469999981 | $20.00 |
| 07-31 11:53 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.9389999956 | $100.00 |