Kawabanga25
0x571581ccb605f35f0af032723cbfc5b3f4a41616
- Realised P&L
- $22.5k
- Volume
- $7.84M
- Markets traded
- 424
- Open portfolio
- $2.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded424
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.195 | 0.115 | $943.31 | −$656.83 |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.024 | $754.94 | −$513.29 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.025 | $335.17 | −$566.86 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by August 31? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.120 | $2.22 | +$0.18 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.001 | $0.50 | −$14.50 |
| Iran invades Kuwait by July 31? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.00 |
| Iran leadership change by July 31? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$858.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.7kat 0.503Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
- +$16.3kat 0.624Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
- +$15.4kat 0.217US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
- +$7.9kat 0.217Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$6.3kat 0.312England-Mexico game rescheduled to different time?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 14:44 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? | BUY | 0.0230637098 | $50.00 |
| 08-02 11:56 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? | SELL | 0.0179908917 | $107.95 |
| 08-02 10:18 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | SELL | 0.11 | $7.39 |
| 08-02 10:12 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | SELL | 0.0258881569 | $57.53 |
| 08-02 10:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | SELL | 0.10995265 | $659.72 |
| 08-02 10:08 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? | SELL | 0.02 | $40.00 |
| 08-02 10:05 | Iran leadership change by August 31? | SELL | 0.02236 | $67.08 |
| 08-02 09:16 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? | SELL | 0.0199281519 | $318.85 |
| 08-02 03:32 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | SELL | 0.0537310769 | $139.70 |
| 08-02 03:30 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | SELL | 0.06 | $123.71 |
| 08-02 03:28 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? | SELL | 0.03 | $90.00 |
| 08-02 03:28 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.109999999 | $100.00 |
| 08-02 03:27 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.109999999 | $100.00 |
| 08-02 03:27 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.109999999 | $100.00 |
| 08-02 03:27 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.1099999999 | $1.2k |