Rbg35
0x593b9cda3a7db38e46bba544b02d20cb4499b608
- Realised P&L
- $-374.45
- Volume
- $16.4k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $18.25
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.036 | $18.25 | −$81.75 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$64.00 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Argentina | 0.402 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? · Yes | 0.188 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$37.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$213.55at 0.190Maduro out by January 31, 2026?
- +$187.66at 0.177Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
- +$8.14at 0.180Grok 4.20 released by December 31?
- +$6.88at 0.930Maduro out in 2025?
- +$-21.00at 0.110Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 20:00 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4024999992 | $100.00 |
| 06-06 06:46 | Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0884197 | $176.84 |
| 05-25 20:53 | Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $500.00 |
| 02-14 19:19 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $40.00 |
| 01-31 07:54 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | SELL | 0.3373340667 | $55.19 |
| 01-25 08:21 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | SELL | 0.2659544 | $99.73 |
| 01-25 08:07 | Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | SELL | 0.043 | $48.86 |
| 01-20 22:43 | Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | BUY | 0.0879999992 | $100.00 |
| 01-18 22:04 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? | BUY | 0.016 | $0.16 |
| 01-18 21:21 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? | BUY | 0.36 | $36.00 |
| 01-07 08:32 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $192.00 |
| 01-06 22:28 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | BUY | 0.2 | $150.00 |
| 01-03 09:44 | Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.994 | $125.55 |
| 01-03 08:14 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.036261205 | $30.22 |
| 01-03 08:02 | Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.47 | $188.00 |