demux2000
0x5a37a6516abf247e9c500d29d334aa7f6a7bd223
- Realised P&L
- $13.68
- Volume
- $2.6k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $153.50
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? · Yes | 0.375 | 0.195 | $140.26 | −$129.73 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.045 | $13.24 | −$86.76 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · No | 0.122 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$148.02at 0.388US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?
- +$98.34at 0.494Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in February 2026?
- +$39.13at 0.719Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$-25.31at 0.190 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-28 20:39 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.1219999966 | $30.00 |
| 02-07 00:10 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | SELL | 0.093800114 | $24.68 |
| 02-05 16:42 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in February 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999986 | $50.00 |
| 02-05 16:38 | US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | SELL | 0.962 | $248.01 |
| 02-04 16:00 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | BUY | 0.1899999975 | $50.00 |
| 02-01 06:39 | Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? | BUY | 0.4559932535 | $100.00 |
| 02-01 05:21 | US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | BUY | 0.3878750267 | $100.00 |
| 01-24 16:14 | Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.718760856 | $100.00 |
| 01-22 01:54 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999978 | $100.00 |