0x5AcDbBe5990B52Deabb1F3D2f4e8A4E14D7008d7-1766670414097
0x5acdbbe5990b52deabb1f3d2f4e8a4e14d7008d7
- Realised P&L
- $4.0k
- Volume
- $55.9k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? · Yes | 0.315 | 0.991 | $866.01 | +$590.19 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.680 | $539.68 | +$39.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$908.64at 0.810Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$818.48at 0.830Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$459.41at 0.685Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
- +$408.18at 0.550Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
- +$261.69at 0.908Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 08:25 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.987 | $3.3k |
| 07-20 22:03 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.6660536659 | $500.00 |
| 07-14 21:08 | Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19? | BUY | 0.901243059 | $2.0k |
| 07-12 21:50 | Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? | SELL | 0.999 | $908.18 |
| 07-11 23:59 | Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? | BUY | 0.4189301102 | $125.82 |
| 07-11 21:35 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999996 | $500.00 |
| 07-11 21:31 | Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? | BUY | 0.6852082245 | $1000.00 |
| 07-11 21:24 | Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? | BUY | 0.2613300534 | $150.00 |
| 07-03 13:17 | Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? | BUY | 0.5499999996 | $500.00 |
| 07-03 13:15 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.9078120781 | $3.0k |
| 07-01 00:19 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | SELL | 0.09276376 | $115.95 |
| 07-01 00:13 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | BUY | 0.08 | $100.00 |
| 07-01 00:10 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.994062028 | $2.9k |
| 06-26 22:08 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | SELL | 0.4 | $78.55 |
| 06-26 22:07 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.9422608202 | $2.8k |