0x5B19165F3aC3993fb1a9ed3E5b74cd3375989197-1772204230792
0x5b19165f3ac3993fb1a9ed3e5b74cd3375989197
- Realised P&L
- $11.6k
- Volume
- $85.2k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $218.47
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar13.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration98.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.145 | $218.47 | −$956.16 |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$899.97 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? · Yes | 0.684 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$676.54 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? · Yes | 0.656 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$195.79 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? · No | 0.026 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$106.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.2kat 0.190US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$148.19at 0.720Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?
- +$60.66at 0.970Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 4, 2026?
- +$13.32at 0.970Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026?
- +$1.08at 0.810Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 6, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-22 02:23 | Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.97 | $430.72 |
| 03-22 02:22 | Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.7640618542 | $214.44 |
| 03-19 10:34 | Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.026386661 | $106.87 |
| 03-05 19:24 | US strikes Iraq by March 7? | SELL | 0.37 | $390.70 |
| 03-04 22:08 | US strikes Iraq by March 7? | BUY | 0.2 | $211.19 |
| 03-04 22:04 | US strikes Iraq by March 7? | SELL | 0.13 | $270.73 |
| 03-04 21:55 | US strikes Iraq by March 7? | BUY | 0.248907563 | $518.35 |
| 03-03 22:47 | Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.9704808602 | $2.0k |
| 02-28 10:13 | Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? | BUY | 0.7806705103 | $589.02 |
| 02-28 10:13 | Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? | BUY | 0.6952157031 | $487.00 |
| 02-28 10:13 | Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | BUY | 0.6919357651 | $206.39 |
| 02-28 06:54 | Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | BUY | 0.6572395879 | $298.57 |
| 02-28 06:54 | Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? | BUY | 0.7785413454 | $585.62 |
| 02-28 06:54 | Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? | BUY | 0.6581499358 | $189.54 |
| 02-28 06:54 | Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | BUY | 0.6 | $117.00 |