ammarb
0x5efe3c04dbc8e0f63260d3984db311128ceb5f55
- Realised P&L
- $-129.51
- Volume
- $37.0k
- Markets traded
- 64
- Open portfolio
- $4.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded64
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$269.30at 0.100Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?
- +$93.00at 0.190Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?
- +$73.00at 0.354Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
- +$64.80at 0.730Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
- +$30.41at 0.200GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 14:34 | SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $15.50 |
| 07-14 15:03 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $31.15 |
| 07-11 04:38 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | BUY | 0.817 | $67.00 |
| 07-11 04:26 | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.019 | $9.97 |
| 07-11 04:25 | Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.0097028076 | $23.77 |
| 07-11 04:25 | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.131 | $29.92 |
| 07-09 16:59 | SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4376138534 | $103.11 |
| 07-08 04:46 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.96 | $14.40 |
| 07-08 04:43 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $9.00 |
| 07-08 04:39 | SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.41 | $18.45 |
| 07-08 04:38 | SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? | BUY | 0.51 | $24.35 |
| 07-08 04:35 | Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027? | BUY | 0.9235002 | $277.01 |
| 07-07 06:45 | Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? | BUY | 0.127 | $3.18 |
| 07-07 06:33 | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.0220724657 | $69.27 |
| 07-07 06:31 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $215.76 |