0x61c35b4665f07d2d48af01ec35efb3a6233371b3
- Realised P&L
- $8.1k
- Volume
- $78.8k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $707.13
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar10.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration82.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.085 | $354.17 | −$145.83 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.574 | 0.195 | $152.88 | −$296.87 |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? · Yes | 0.233 | 0.079 | $121.44 | −$238.56 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.377 | 0.506 | $67.16 | +$17.16 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.055 | $11.46 | −$88.54 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.1kat 0.031Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
- +$1.8kat 0.186US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$760.01at 0.543Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$34.75at 0.590Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
- +$0.00at 0.315Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 11:57 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4074999968 | $50.00 |
| 07-03 11:39 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999998 | $500.00 |
| 06-19 06:36 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3769999973 | $50.00 |
| 06-11 20:08 | Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? | BUY | 0.4728151546 | $500.00 |
| 06-11 20:06 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.3225806452 | $100.00 |
| 05-20 22:19 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | BUY | 0.5091060398 | $501.00 |
| 05-12 21:34 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.055 | $99.50 |
| 05-12 21:33 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.0549999486 | $1.00 |
| 04-01 04:44 | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.1615452636 | $497.50 |
| 03-30 08:09 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.6699999987 | $99.50 |
| 03-29 15:47 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2522775158 | $49.75 |
| 03-29 03:16 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.609999998 | $99.50 |
| 03-28 06:54 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL | 0.029 | $52.73 |
| 03-27 18:32 | Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.1197192072 | $995.00 |
| 03-27 13:18 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.64 | $49.75 |